Nala Weekly

A weekly product of the Nala Center, tracking the flashpoints shaping the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and where they are likely to go next.

Nala Weekly

Issue No. 05

Nala Weekly — Issue No. 05

27 October 2026

This week, ambushes, drones and disease tested governments across the region. A federal army column suffered heavy losses near Leego, days into Somalia’s new offensive in South West State, and clashes in Moyale between Ethiopia’s Oromia and Somali regions drove thousands into Kenya. RSF drones cut power across eastern Sudan, Egypt’s parliament authorised support for Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, and DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak passed 9,900 confirmed cases. Each section sets out likely scenarios, a recommendation and what to watch in the coming weeks.

Nala Weekly

Issue No. 04

Nala Weekly — Issue No. 04

20 October 2026

This week, drones and disputed mandates shaped the region. A drone strike on a market in the contested Abyei Area killed at least 153 people, and Ethiopian forces stepped back from the Eritrean border. Egypt weighed sending forces to support Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, Somalia set election dates without the opposition’s agreement, and in DR Congo the AFC/M23 relaunched itself as the FRN. Each section sets out likely scenarios, a recommendation and what to watch in the coming weeks.

Nala Weekly

Issue No. 03

Nala Weekly — Issue No. 03

13 October 2026

This week's Nala Weekly tracks six flashpoints as the region's conflicts become contests between states. On the Ethiopia–Eritrea border, federal and allied forces have pushed to within about 30 km of Eritrea as both capitals took their cases to the UN Security Council. In Sudan, strikes near the Ethiopian and Egyptian borders killed scores of civilians. In Somalia, a dispute over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's mandate has pitted security forces against the opposition in Mogadishu. In the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, a Houthi missile struck Riyadh's main airport. In South Sudan, President Kiir secured South African backing for the 22 December polls while the main opposition continues to boycott, and in the DR Congo, former president Joseph Kabila has taken charge of the rebellion in Goma.

Nala Weekly

Issue No. 02

Nala Weekly — Issue No. 02

6 October 2026

This week's Nala Weekly tracks five flashpoints as the region's conflicts increasingly converge. In Ethiopia, federal forces have retaken Mekelle and Addis Ababa has broken off relations with Eritrea, raising the risk of an interstate war. In Sudan, army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has ruled out talks as the RSF opens a new front in Blue Nile on the Ethiopian border. In South Sudan, the main opposition is boycotting the pre-election dialogue, leaving the 22 December poll short of legitimacy. Somalia is caught between rival regional blocs as Ethiopia weighs pulling troops out and the AU mission's funding is in doubt. At the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi-backed Yemeni forces are fighting the Houthis for control of the strait.

Nala Weekly

Issue No. 01

Nala Weekly — Issue No. 01

29 September 2026

This week's Nala Weekly tracks four fast-moving flashpoints reshaping the security environment in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. In South Sudan, President Salva Kiir has cleared the way for a 22 December vote, but with Riek Machar on trial and the main opposition rejecting the process, the poll risks deepening the crisis. In Ethiopia, a seven-group alliance with the TPLF as its main fighting force has taken up arms against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, ending the Pretoria agreement and raising the risk of a regional war. At the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthis' seizure of Mayun Island has opened a Red Sea front in the war with Iran, putting one of the world's key shipping lanes at risk. In Sudan, the RSF is applying the siege tactics used in El Fasher to El-Obeid, pushing the country towards a de facto partition.